What you think you know is more dangerous than what you don't.

When you know you don't know something, you ask questions. You get help. You test assumptions. You move carefully.

But when you think you know? That's when bad decisions happen.

I've been there. Leading a rebrand based on incomplete market insight. Greenlighting a product launch date before understanding distribution constraints. Hiring for capability without testing for culture fit. Each time, I felt confident enough to decide—but didn't have the depth to decide well.

The gap between confidence and competence is where strategies go sideways.

Most leaders are pretty good at recognizing total blind spots. We know when we're completely out of our depth. The problem is the middle ground—where we've got just enough context to feel certain, but not enough to be right.

That's the zone where experience can work against you. You've seen something similar before, so you assume you understand this. You've led through adjacent challenges, so you think the same playbook applies. You've got partial data, so you fill in the gaps with pattern matching.

And sometimes you're right. But when you're wrong, it's expensive.

Here's what changes when you start separating what you know from what you think you know:

→ You slow down on the big calls and ask sharper questions
→ You seek input from people who see what you're missing
→ You test assumptions before betting the budget
→ You build decision frameworks that demand evidence, not just conviction

Better decisions don't come from knowing more. They come from knowing the difference.

Some other thoughts I had while writing this...

• Confidence is a feeling. Competence is a track record. Don't confuse the two.

• The best question you can ask before a major decision: "What would I need to be wrong about for this to fail?"

• AI can help stress-test your thinking—but only if you're willing to challenge your own certainty.

#MakeEveryDecisionCount